COVID Testing and Bayes’ Theorem

Yesterday, an interesting conundrum came to me. Sometimes, people take two COVID tests on the same day. Imagine that one came back negative and the other came back positive… which can and does happen. Here is the tricky question… which one do you trust? The positive or the negative? You might think there is noContinue reading “COVID Testing and Bayes’ Theorem”

Critical Thinking Toolkit: Weighing Evidence with Bayes’ Theorem

When we are involved in important discussions, it is important to not take pivotal claims of others – or ourselves – merely at face value. Instead, we debate the various available ideas. That is, we bring forth evidence that we have thought about and that we believe supports our position, and we listen to theContinue reading “Critical Thinking Toolkit: Weighing Evidence with Bayes’ Theorem”

Do “Monkey-Typewriter” Arguments Work?

There is a famous analogy that is used in discussion of highly improbable events – that of monkeys sitting at a typewriter, banging away at the keys. It is said in this parable that, given enough time, the monkey will type out Hamlet, or a Shakespeaean sonnet, or the complete works of Shakespeare, or someContinue reading “Do “Monkey-Typewriter” Arguments Work?”